Armchair Warlord
@ArmchairW
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Weaboo, author and battle theorist. Interactions are not endorsements.
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Alright team, I think I'll close out my independent audit of Oryx's work with a "meta-analysis" - a review of my five reviews so far to determine what this tells us about their reliability as a source on this war.
By this point the data set's big enough to draw conclusions.
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The Battle of Bakhmut is over. It was one of the longest battles of the 21st century to date, and certainly the bloodiest.
Russia won. In doing so it destroyed much of the Ukrainian Army's combat power while buying time to generate forces for future offensives.
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> Russian victory is impossible
> Russian victory is unlikely
> Russia cannot be allowed to win (you are here)
> Russia is winning but at what cost?
> Russian victory was inevitable
> Ukraine was a corrupt hellhole anyways
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Given what we know now about Prigozhin's rebellion - particularly that some 3/4 of Wagner refused to participate - it's likely Putin knew about the plot well in advance and, ever the judoka, allowed it to go forward for reasons of his own.
What reasons? Short thread: ⬇️
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The Russian Army just blasted open a 12-kilometer hole in the Ukrainian front line and captured more terrain in a week than Ukraine has in the last two months of their counteroffensive.
Let's talk about it. ⬇️
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With news breaking that the Ukrainians are moving towards a final, total mobilization against Russia - and me regretting I didn't post about it yesterday when I had a hunch on the matter - something occurred to me. I've underestimated the Russians before. What if I still am?⬇️…
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Putin HATES it!
How NATO tried to use ONE WEIRD TRICK to destroy the Russian Army!
Thread 👇
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The Sword of Damocles - the Russian Army's force buildup through 2023 and what it means for the Ukrainian War going forward.
One of the biggest - and certainly the most consequential - question marks in the world right now is the current status of the Russian Army. Some…
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Some pictures emerged recently of the inner workings of the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, one of the handful of factories producing heavy-caliber ammunition for the US military (and Ukraine). These were apparently taken in February this year.
I'm just imagining the PhD…
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Imagine the reaction if this was a map of Moscow.
Meanwhile, looking at the
@FoxNews
front page - even clicking through to the global section - I can't find a single story on the deadly, nationwide riots gripping France.
They're still talking about Wagner!
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Seems like the Ukrainian propagandists on this website collectively realized today that Ukraine is, in fact, going to lose this war.
I'm smirking right now.
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Big news of the day is the Ukrainians launched a major attack on the Zaporozhe front, with multiple brigades committed.
If this was indeed "the" counteroffensive, results were far below Western expectations. After several hours of fighting the Russians held the line.
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Gaza War update.
Israel dropped a 2000-lb JDAM on a hospital and killed about a thousand people. Guided bomb, known facility. Connect the dots.
They've been spinning conspiracy theories since about how it was some Palestinian rocket that did it. I don't believe them.
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The United States military has a long track record of figuring out exactly what it needs for the war of the future, developing appropriate weapons, and then discarding them and being caught with its pants down when its enemies develop equivalents decades later.
A thread:
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"Why don't the Russians do [x] in response to [y] provocation?"
Because they're serious people and not in the mood to be led around by their enemies.
"Reflexive control" is the control that you exert over an adversary's actions when they feel compelled to retaliate against you.…
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Anyone remember back when the Russians only had 46 Kinzhals and had stopped production completely because of sanctions?
Actually, does anyone remember back when the Kinzhal was Russian propaganda and didn't actually exist as a functional weapon?
lol. lmao, even.
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The Ukrainian War isn't going to be "the" war of the 21st century. It's probably going to be remembered as the minor war before WWIII that everyone observed very closely and then proceeded to draw wildly incorrect conclusions from.
Much like the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5. ⬇️
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Lost amid all the other news breaking in the last 24 hours is one particularly disturbing story: the United States Navy lost a battle at sea yesterday.
CENTCOM put out an anodyne press release yesterday stating that afternoon, "Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists fired three…
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I vividly recall a discussion on Tanknet circa 2000 in which a European poster - allegedly a serviceman - claimed that a Leopard 2A4 could take any number of hits from a T-72's 125mm cannon. According to him the Russian APFSDS penetrators would stick into its turret face like…
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If Mediazona's count of Russian casualties in Ukraine is accurate - and it probably is - Russian losses tapered off over the month of August to the point they're now hardly worse than American ones at the height of the Iraq War.
This suggests the AFU is beginning to collapse. ⬇️
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Something I called on Telegram back on August 8th but which has been fully borne out by now:
Ukraine appears to be out of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, or at least very close to out of them, after a Russian strike in Khmelnitsky three weeks ago targeted what was likely the…
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Yesterday the Ukrainian government admitted their vehicle loss figures, revealing catastrophic losses over the course of the war thus far.
This tells us something critical about the info war: that the Russian MoD's claims about their own operations are basically true.
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I suppose I should remark at this point that Zelensky does not appear to have set foot in Ukraine since April.
Zelensky confirms the authenticity of the leaked Pentagon documents, then asks the Washington Post to stop playing games with him, then thanks the Washington Post for supporting Ukraine in the war, then says he doesn't know what he's talking about
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This all raises an interesting question, which I touched on earlier. Pro-Russian commentators often assume that NATO is bluffing with its endless provocations against Russia, and that it will slink off with its tail between its legs if Putin slaps back hard.
What if it isn't?…
Justin Trudeau is so unhinged it's not funny anymore.
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The Russian MoD put out an interesting announcement today.
Over 100,000 new contract soldiers have signed up with the Russian military since the start of the year. Of those, more than 16,000 signed up since the terror attack in Moscow ten days ago. Two divisions.
It's…
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Every person in that tank needs a Hero of Russia medal and a psych evaluation.
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Let's examine the evidence around the strike on the Gaza Baptist Hospital and see where it takes us.
Evidence pointing towards Israeli responsibility:
- Israeli aircraft filmed dropping flares and banking away immediately prior to "arrival"
- "Arrival" similar to other known…
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I think the Russians need to give their generals punch cards - after the Ukrainians claim to have killed them ten times they can get a free coffee at the PX.
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An underreported story out of this war is how the Russians are casually shooting down tactical ballistic missiles and even artillery rockets with their normal air defense systems.
This is something the West has put huge efforts into, with less to show for it.
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Time to talk about tactics, and specifically about how the Russians have adapted theirs to present the Ukrainian military with an unsolvable tactical dilemma rather than any kind of a fair fight.
This is what smart militaries do.
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Gonzalo Lira was a brave man in an age of cowards and an honest man in an age of liars.
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So a large part of the stated justification for NATO supporting Ukraine is the supposed belief that "the West is next" - that Ukraine is merely the first domino to fall in a new Russian march to Berlin.
It's very odd then that the actual members of NATO aren't acting like it.…
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Back in July I wrote a thread analyzing Ukrainian personnel losses in the context of German casualties in WWII, in which I determined that due to extreme casualties they could not sustain the war effort much past Spring 2024.
Today their new mobilization law came out and it's…
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Yeah, normally they hang out hundreds of miles from the front pretending to be in danger.
Totally normal way for a journalist covering a war to be dressed
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Looks like Challenger 2s aren't anything special after all.
Original video:
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At this point it's fairly certain that the terror attack yesterday in Moscow was the work of the Ukrainian GUR - the attackers were literally apprehended in Bryansk while trying to flee to Ukraine. Western statements pointing a finger at ISIS should be taken as misdirection,…
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Now that the Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive is grinding to a halt after three months of brutal but absolutely fruitless attacks, a note on how the Russians have shaped the battlefield - in some ways literally - for the last year to win this critical battle.
The Russians, the…
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Maybe we should have gotten the fuck off Russia's lawn when they asked us nicely twenty years ago.
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"The Russians wasted their time constructing a defense in depth because the Ukrainian Hundred Days Offensive was so feeble that it was stopped at the line of departure" is a new cope, hitherto unknown to military science, which will be studied by soldiers for decades to come.
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The Russians announce they're going to manufacture 1500 tanks in 2023, T-90Ms suddenly become ubiquitous, and people on this website still think they're running out of war materiel.
UVZ is still shutting down at night right now. The Russian war economy is only in second gear.
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Russia is apparently gassing NATO in Ukraine on $67 billion a year. Which is about a quarter of what their enemies are throwing at them.
Beyond showing that Russia can fight this war until doomsday, this is a damning indictment of Western MIC bloat.
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The Black Sea Grain Deal is dead. The astonishing thing is that it lasted as long as it did... which was in no small part due to Antonio Guterres, Secretary General of the United Nations, playing games with the Russians.
Put another log on the bonfire of the institutions. ⬇️
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Earlier today the IDF dropped six 2,000-lb JDAMs on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Gaza, killing and injuring some four hundred civilians on sketchy intelligence that there was one (1) Hamas officer there.
The United States has literally developed weapons to allow us to kill a…
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The Russians hit Kiev with hypersonics again today, destroying (according to reports) an SBU-associated bunker and Patriot launchers at Zhulyany airport.
What's noteworthy is that they used surface-fired Zircon scramjet cruise missiles to do it - a new type of hypersonic weapon.…
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Never ask a man his salary, a woman her weight, or the legal advisor to the Joint Chiefs of Staff the lawful basis by which US forces are stationed in Syria.
The US striking Syria in "self-defense", while illegally occupying it and stealing 80% of its oil and grain output is text-book "rules based order" we keep hearing about.
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How the Great Belgorod Raid started vs. how it went
A little post-facto analysis below:
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"Dozens" of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering north of Klescheevka, apparently around 48.552153, 37.960711. Probably the remnants of a whole company.
Very much calls into question their recent claims of success in the area and the motivation of their troops.
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Commentors have complained throughout the Ukrainian War that the Russians are not striking enough "dual use" infrastructure - bridges, power plants, even hydroelectric dams. Allow me to explain why I believe they have avoided this war-shortening measure.
Prior to the 2003…
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I've noticed something in the last couple weeks - there is a vast gulf in support for Israel between the Western elites and the man on the street. Politicians and elites are supporting Israel reflexively, indeed almost mindlessly. Ordinary people have a more nuanced view of the…
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The Russians carried out highly effective deep strikes on AFU assembly areas west of Avdeevka today, with reports of hundreds of casualties and significant material losses.
This points to two things: First, the Russians have drone coverage well behind the front. These positions…
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How many Americans can find At Tanf on a map? (not many)
How many knew we've stationed troops there for close to a decade? (fewer still)
How many can articulate a valid reason for our continued presence there? (zero)
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It occurred to me today that the scale of losses taken by the Ukrainian Army in the Battle of Zaporozhe was the equivalent of a major Western European army being utterly destroyed.
Just imagine, say, the British Army going into battle and no longer existing four months later.
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Ever since mid-2022 the Russians have consciously pursued a "long war" strategy in Ukraine, seeking to grind down the AFU and exhaust NATO's ability to fuel the war while building their own capabilities. It has largely succeeded.
But...
Why did the Russians think it would work?…
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This latest Ukrainian offensive north of Izyum is their Battle of the Bulge - a desperate lunge with their last combat-capable units that will, in the end, result in little more than the destruction of those units and the substantial weakening of their operational situation.
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March 9th, 1945. 279 B-29s struck Tokyo with 1600 tons of incendiary bombs with the intent of burning the city down wholesale.
Approximately 100,000 civilians on the ground were killed, more than in either subsequent atomic bomb attack.
Learn some history.
American war crimes are like "this disconnected squad rounded up villagers and slaughtered them" while Russian war crimes are to the effect of "ordered the execution of an entire city via artillery"
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D+4 Israel update: the IDF has solidified its defensive line around Gaza, but most ground fighting remains within Israel with Palestinian fighters launching attacks against the nearest towns and villages. Palestinian infiltrators also remain a serious problem, with gun battles…
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Alright team, news came out today that the US is looking at giving Ukraine MLRS systems. BrOSINT is of course saying this is a game-changer and will turn the tide of battle.
It's going to be a bust like every other "game changer" weapon thus far. Let's look at why.
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Avdeevka
Krynki
Pobeda
Severne
Lastochkino
Severnoe
Rabotino
A week of daily defeats for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the second anniversary of the invasion. Most recently the Russians rolled back much of the Ukrainian Hundred Days' Offensive gains in a matter of hours.
But…
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A note on something I can see becoming a problem after the Ukrainian War is over: the "Ukrainian Vatnik" cope.
It will become an article of faith in the West that the AFU's failures can all be laid on incompetence, and Real NATO Troops would do better.
Is this true though?⬇️…
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Let's talk about defense in depth. Seems appropriate at the moment.
A thread:
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I love the sheer amount of salt you can get out of the internet by pointing out that Ukraine has no elections.
Zelensky is a dictator. Cope.
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This video illustrates something quite important that points the finger directly at Ukraine for the attack on the Khakovka dam - they released an enormous amount of water from upstream dams immediately beforehand. Look how high the water level still is even a day later.
Investigators of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation examined the site of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and recorded all the damage
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Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive Day 4 update
After an operational pause yesterday the Ukrainians resumed attacks, with a large push north of Bakhmut and a smaller one on the border in Belgorod.
The main effort, however, materialized south of Orekhovo attacking towards Tokmak.
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Oh look, Olaf Scholz just confirmed what I've been saying all along: that "Ukrainian" cruise missile attacks in Crimea - using British and French missiles - are actually targeted by British and French advisors and the only thing the Ukrainians actually do is pull the trigger.…
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Some analysis on the prospects of an Israeli ground assault and occupation of Gaza, which perhaps explains why they've been shying away from actually launching the operation.
Hamas right now claims 40,000 reasonably well-armed and well-trained fighters in a city of 2 million.…
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Russian offensive warning - Spring 2024
Putin's been reelected, Ukraine is desperately short on men, ammunition and equipment, and Western resolve is cracking. It seems to me the time is ripe to end this war.
What do the Russians have to attack with? Let's take a look.⬇️
I'm…
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Pro-Ukrainians on this website complaining about pro-Russians rubbing their noses in the humiliating failure of Leopards and Bradleys at Orekhovo would be a lot more convincing if they hadn't spent the last several months making cringe memes about their invincible Europanzers.
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After seeing the Israelis gaggle enormous traffic jams of armor into Gaza and proceed to make marginal gains against insurgents with light arms, every single wannabe tactician on this website slagging on the Russians for moving in column sometimes owes them an enormous apology.
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Ukrainians posting months-old battle wreckage while the Russians are posting mass surrenders and functional captured tanks about sums up the military zeitgeist right now.
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If it was 1941, this poster would have been fighting alongside Hitler.
Finns, man...
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So a few news items that came out today:
- US denies ATACMS missiles to Ukraine
- US hands over a paltry $325M aid package to Zelensky during his visit to the US
- Poland declares an end to military support for Ukraine
- Duda compares Ukraine to a desperate "drowning man"…
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I think it's pretty clear what the Russians are doing with their ongoing "mud season offensive" in Ukraine, really a collection of local attacks across the length of the front line (with the exception of Kherson, but the Ukrainians are playing themselves there). These attacks…
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Wild mask-off Baltic moment here.
Who was, uh, occupying Tallinn in March 1944? Asking for a friend.
Today, 80 years ago
#Tallinn
🇪🇪 was devastated by the March bombings, which destroyed a quarter of the city overnight.
Up to 300 Russian aircrafts were bombing us & their primary targets were residential districts & cultural landmarks.
Russian playbook is the same today in 🇺🇦
🧵
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I think the US Army has lost more helicopters in training accidents so far this year than the Russian Army has lost in combat in Ukraine.
This is the second Apache helicopter to crash in the past 48 hours.
And this is the seventh in a year.
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A single Russian ammunition plant (one of several) is apparently on track to produce more shells than the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 2024.
The takeaway here isn't Russia being an industrial juggernaut - it's not hard to make shells - it's Western collapse.
⚡️⚡️🇷🇺Ukrainian sources again complaining about Russian ammo production (this just from one plant). So according to this source, one plant alone will produce over 1,250,000 rounds.
In particular, for 2024, only at the facilities of one JSC “V.V. Bakhirev State Research Institute…
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Every single word in this sentence is a lie.
The reason we should support our Ukrainian allies is because it protects American national security, it keeps America safer, and it prevents our enemies from getting stronger.
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This war is basically encapsulated by the Canadian parliament giving a standing ovation to a Nazi.
Congratulations! You just validated every single claim the Russians have made about Ukrainian Nazism.
Wanna "feel clean again"
@Cherniak
? Try a U-turn on Ukraine policy.
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Red October.
The Russians have recently destroyed several large Ukrainian ammunition depots containing thousands of tons of munitions, dropped a large number of bridges in the combat zone and are now operating special forces teams in Ivano-Franivsk near the Hungarian border.…
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Apparently local elections will be held in Russian Donetsk from September 8th-10th. Meanwhile all elections in Ukraine have been cancelled indefinitely.
We're supporting a "democracy" that has no elections against a "dictatorship" that is holding elections.
My head hurts.
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Well, that was quick.
Following months of indecisive slugging on the flanks the Russians launched a vicious stab through the "neck" of Avdeevka south of the AKHZ industrial plant at the beginning of February, fighting through a heavily-fortified urban area with the help of an…
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So let me get this straight - not only was Al-Shifa Hospital not defended, not only did the Israelis find nothing after tearing it apart, but Hamas had sealed up and abandoned the old Israeli bunker underneath it.
Their claims weren't just wrong, they were inverse to reality.
IDF expands its 'targeted operation' at
#AlShifaHospital
to the southern part of the complex
'The tunnel shafts or the basement shafts inside the hospital have been blocked by concrete by Hamas. The army has brought in addition of tanks to guard the area and bulldozers to try…
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General Milley's vile comment about "white rage" in front of Congress cost him a division.
In 2018, 44,000 whites joined the Army.
By 2023, that number had plummeted to 25,000, a 43% reduction in just 5 years.
New recruits dropped from 56% white to 44%.
Military official: “There's a level of prestige in parts of conservative America with service that has degraded”
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This is nonsense from people who have consistently projected behind the power curve of the war. They were claiming Ukraine was weeks or even days from victory early in the war, moving to months over this year and are now expecting a years-long "protracted conflict" of 6-7 years.…
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The end result of this has been much like the end-result of most life hacks - wasted time, effort and money, with the problem remaining very much unsolved.
NATO is running out of precision weapons and the Russian position in Ukraine is probably better now than it has ever been.
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Are you a Ukrainian targeting officer? Do you want to interdict the Russian ammo supply in Ukraine with deep strikes? Would you like to figure out how much stuff you're actually going to have to hit to succeed?
Well, let's find out. A thread.
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The Ukrainians did this today. 18 dead including kids.
We in the West should have no more to do with them.
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Rapid collapse of Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk, where the the "next Mariupol" was over in a matter of hours.
I've also attached some photos showing the state of UAF troops in Lisichansk. Ukrainian forces in the area look to be nearly out of heavy weapons.
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The Ukrainians advanced into a textbook engagement area east of Rabotino, have been getting massacred there for a month, and are trying to pass it off as a victory. And serious people believe them!
Suddenly I understand how the Germans believed Goebbels for so long.
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Wild video from Kiev just now - a Patriot battery apparently emptying its launchers (I counted 30 missile launches in two minutes) before being struck and probably destroyed by an incoming Russian missile.
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Every since D-Day on February 24th, 2022, Ukraine has been fighting a total war against Russia.
One of the most ghoulish talking points I see out of Ukrainian shills and Russian doomers is that Ukraine can and will simply take millions of casualties to win.
Can they really?⬇️
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Do you want to see what total institutional failure looks like?
Let me walk you through the US Army's failed 40-year effort to develop a new light scout helicopter that finally ground to a halt last week, after developing and canceling the helicopter we need today 20 years ago.…
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The practice of US general officers routinely making appearances in the modern day wearing absolutely monumental ribbon racks, down to their NDSMs and ASRs, is honestly kind of unseemly.
We've mocked our enemies before for doing exactly this kind of thing.
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Am I the only person who noticed this?
If this report from the NATO Vilnius Summit is correct, the Federal Republic of Germany is about to have ZERO artillery shells left in its national stockpile.
If Putin decided to attend the summit tomorrow, could anyone actually stop him?
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The fact the Transnistrians are now looking at preemptively doing this - and possibly inviting attack by Ukraine - tells you all you need to know about what the balance of forces in theater looks like right now.
Notice, by the way, that this happened after the Ukrainians shut…
BREAKING:
⚡ 🇲🇩 The situation in Moldova is boiling
Officials in Transnistria will meet on Feb 28th supposedly to officially ask to be annexed by Russia.
The head of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, is convening a congress of deputies at all levels, most likely next week.…
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I love it when NATO's commanding general confirms my takes two days after I put them out.
That's right, folks - even according to General Cavoli, head of EUCOM and SACEUR, Russia now has a larger army than when it kicked off the SMO and has suffered no real attrition elsewhere.
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