Ansel Lindner
@AnselLindner
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Contrarian economist. Bitcoin. Former military. Forbes contributor. Host and writer at https://t.co/5AwuT0cAZ5. Join https://t.co/mlrO2SlZ2n
Bitcoin & Markets
Joined June 2013
Accurate #Bitcoin and #Macro analysis you can't find anywhere else! Free newsletter https://t.co/5Sm7d3dsTL Premium market newsletter https://t.co/5yNXE5RQ2C Join Telegram community! https://t.co/G04gSqlLKx LIVE streams YT https://t.co/iLFt9Hiqnm Rumble
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At this point Tom Lee just wakes up, spins a wheel, and picks a new date for the ATH. https://t.co/vgXJiuFBk1
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November PMI - 48.2% down from 48.7% last month. It's the 34th out of 36 months PMI has been in contraction. Longest in series record going back to 1948. This is survey data, but pretty hard to say the real economy isn't in recession by this point.
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Bitcoin $BTC most oversold on the hourly chart since 10 Oct with a bull div.
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INSIDE NYT’S HOAX FACTORY Five months ago, five New York Times reporters were dispatched to create a story about my supposed conflicts of interest working as the White House AI & Crypto Czar. Through a series of “fact checks” they revealed their accusations, which we debunked
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Bitcoin is not threatened at all by quantum in any foreseeable future. I've written in depth here https://t.co/0QkHDPbTWT And here https://t.co/oXPCvOkair
@_The_Prophet__ summarizes things well, but I'd add that quantum mechanics, as a field itself, still has a lot of proving
bitcoinandmarkets.com
A critical look at the broken promises, contradictory physics, and hype-driven economics behind the so-called quantum revolution.
@Aquilae_80085 Quantum does not threaten Bitcoin in any realistic timeline. It strengthens the thesis. People confuse “quantum breaks signatures” with “quantum breaks Bitcoin.” Those are not the same thing. Here is the real structure: 1. Bitcoin is not static. If quantum capability ever
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$MSTR: WHAT DO THE GREEN DOTS MEAN? A few thoughts after comparing notes with @BenWerkman 1. Share Buyback - Not likely, timing would seem odd for either when they likely had to use common stock ATM for the $STRC dividend last week. Share Issuances with share buybacks is an
$MSTR: Good Morning everyone, it's (Green) Dotday
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The equity buffer on the Tether entity looks thin because all of the profits are being pulled out via dividend (look at second table below). If all of the profits had been retained in the equity then there would be an immense net equity buffer. If the prices of gold or BTC were
The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.
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Stan Druckenmiller from 2018 is eerily similar to today. Macro Diagnosis (late 2018) > Coincident and lagging economic indicators still look very strong (GDP has a 3-handle, etc.) > Leading indicators he uses are not yet red but “definitely amber” and flashing warning signs >
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Underperformance of $MSTR, matched with fixed portfolio allocation and end of year rebalancing, would force companies to buy more MSTR into the EOY.
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First it was $MSTR FUD, now Tether FUD has come back a little. This is a very concise takedown of that $USDT FUD.
I spent 100’s of hours writing research on tether for @Citi. @CryptoHayes missed a few key points. 1) 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 =/ 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 When tether generates $ they have a separate equity balance sheet which they don’t
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Article from @BitcoinMagazine on the MSCI proposal and why the fear-mongering doesn’t match the math. Work from myself and @PunterJeff cited in the piece. Link: https://t.co/0hhNPR4PBC
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My MSTR models for 2030. Pref market Cap around $178B. Lots and lots of Money will flow into the MSTR pump, and continue pushing BTC along a power law adoption curve. To keep BTC following a power law, you need exponentially more capital to enter the network. I believe that
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Going LIVE in 5 mins on the telegram group. Jump and join the channel for surprisingly accurate, out of consensus macro takes. https://t.co/F1uEWhxNln
t.me
Bitcoin news and macro discussion from the mind of Rebel Bitcoiner - Ansel Lindner bitcoinandmarkets.com roguemacro.substack.com X: @AnselLindner ; @RogueMacro_ YT: youtube.com/@btcmarketupdate...
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This is exactly what I would ask my private bankerto build if I was anticipating gains and had a reason to borrow against those gains wanting a honeymoon period to not worry about being liquidated. The significance here is that the banker will now build these products. JPM
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Join us in 20 mins for our Friday hangout space. We'll be diving into the $MSTR scandal and other major news items! Join the conversation, I'll be taking doing Q&A from the audience with our speakers. $BTC https://t.co/OOePIyhpeI
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Proof that Donald Trump listened to last week's Back on the Chain podcast with @hrtlndbitcoin - we literally had this exact conversation. https://t.co/fDvmVO7x8a
fountain.fm
In this episode, I welcome Dan from High Hash Rate for his first podcast appearance in a year, and we waste no time diving into why the show mattered, why it paused, and how the culture has shifted...
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JPM making power moves. Attack on $MSTR and launch their own bitcoin bond. Important date is Dec 15.
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